Reading the Manuel Margot trade, and what it means for the Twins and Byron Buxton

Apparently, Minnesota's front office doesn't know their own players' histories well, and it shows in this February deal.

The Minnesota Twins have sent a clear message with their latest acquisition in the trade market: they're gambling on Byron Buxton’s health.

The center field position is now under the microscope if it wasn’t to begin with.

Yesterday, the Twins finalized a deal to acquire outfielder Manuel Margot from the Los Angeles Dodgers, sending infield prospect Noah Miller in return. The Dodgers also sent prospect Rayne Doncon and cash to help cover Margot’s ridiculous $10 million dollar salary for 2024, as well as a buyout of $2 million for 2025 should Minnesota decline Margot’s $12 million club option.

Signed as an international free agent by the Boston Red Sox in 2011, Margot, 29, has spent parts of eight seasons in the majors playing for the San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Rays. He owns a career .255/.309/.385 slash line with 52 home runs and 283 RBI.

The trade continues Derek Falvey and Thad Levine’s overreliance of acquiring players with sketchy histories in hopes they can band-aid a team together just to win a putrid division.

They also happened to trade for a player on the decline.

Margot played in 99 games for the Rays last year, batting .264 with only four home runs and 34 RBI. He also spent time on the injured list after having loose bodies removed from his throwing elbow in August. His patience at the plate has also deteriorated, walking a career-low 5.4% of his total appearances.

While his hitting is nothing to be proud of, his defense was the worst it has been since first coming into the majors. Margot posted a negative dWAR for the first time in his career (-0.3), representing a sharp drop from 2021, and -3 defensive runs saved splitting time between centerfield and right field.

As a centerfielder, he posted a .971 fielding percentage in only 55 games, along with a -5 DRS and a range factor of only 2.09 per nine innings, the fifth worst in baseball last year among players who appeared in at least 50 games at center. Disgruntled calls attention to this because that’s where Twins fans will likely find Margot when he patrols Target Field’s large area of grass, though he also has experience at the other outfield positions.

Acquiring him also comes with Twins brass expecting Buxton to play most of his games in 2024 at centerfield, and for the former gold glove winner to remain healthy throughout the year. If that wasn’t the case, one would think there might have been a more concentrated effort to bring back Michael A. Taylor to the team (Disgruntled wrote about the pros and cons of bringing Taylor back here).

When he’s healthy, everyone’s favorite DH with his body of glass is capable of winning gold gloves. Buxton has the highest career range factor among active players of 2.98, with a .992 fielding percentage and 68 DRS. He’s also been known to make highlight reel catches with some frequency, but it’s those extra efforts where the glass shatters and sends him to the IL.

Should Buxton get hurt this season, the options at center are either Margot or super utilityman Willi Castro, who posted marginally better numbers at the position than Margot in 2023. The other option potentially is moving Royce Lewis back to the outfield, which could happen anyway with the imminent arrival of Brooks Lee to the big leagues and with Max Kepler’s days in the Twin Cities being numbered.

In conclusion, Twins fans better hope Buxton stays healthy enough to keep playing in the outfield, because Margot is a massive downgrade from Taylor, just like the team’s television deal.